| 余艳春,邵春福,郭钰愫,熊志华.基于实时数据的路网行程时间可靠度模型研究[J].现代交通技术,2006,(2):70-73 |
| 基于实时数据的路网行程时间可靠度模型研究 |
| Research on Travel Time Reliability Model Based on Real-time Data |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 实时数据 可靠度 行程时间 正态分布 |
| 英文关键词:real-time data reliability travel time normal distribution |
| 基金项目:中国科学院资助项目 |
| 余艳春 邵春福 郭钰愫 熊志华 |
| 北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 道路行程时间可靠度是衡量城市道路交通服务质量的指标之一。本文分析和处理道路实时交通数据．统计其行程时间的分布，并拟合行程时间的分布曲线。以此为基础，构建行程时间可靠度模型，并进行案例分析。本文研究得出：路段的行程时间服从正态分布；出行者要求可靠度越高，需要预估的行程时间就越大；即使出行者期望的可靠度相等，对应不同的出发时刻预估行程时间也不同。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Road travel time reliability is one of parameters of evaluation of the traffic service quality of urban road network. Real-time traffic data are analyzed and the distribution of travel time is studied in this paper and it also worked out the distributing curve of travel time.According to the distribution, travel time reliability model is built for analyzing urban expressway network,It coneluded that travel time has normal distribution and traveler should give more preparative travel time with expectation of higher reliability.The travel time reliability also relates to the depature time. |
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